Virginia approves pro-Democratic redistricting, by slimmer margin
Voters back new map, boosting Democrats’ prospects of flipping the House
Virginia voters tonight approved a mid-decade congressional map that could give Democrats a 10-1 edge over Republicans after the 2026 elections, but they did so by weaker margins than Democrats enjoyed in the 2025 gubernatorial election.
With more than 95% of the vote counted, “yes” (in favor of the new map) led 51%-49%.
That was down from the 58%-42% margin enjoyed by Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the 2025 presidential election and more like the 52%-46% win by Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris.
“President Trump has lost another election in Virginia, and this one may cost Republicans their House majority this fall,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, a University of Mary Washington political scientist. “Virginia had passed a previous constitutional amendment to end gerrymandering not that long ago, and the argument to reverse that decision in light of the re-redistricting pushed by President Trump in Texas and elsewhere was not the easiest case to make to voters.”
The plan would produce a map that lasts for the rest of the decade, at which point the state’s commission system would return to draw new maps based on the 2030 Census.
Virginia is the latest state to undertake mid-decade redistricting; Texas, urged by Trump, did it first, followed by California. North Carolina and Ohio made more modest changes, while a Utah remap was ordered by the courts. Missouri also redrew its map, though it could be overturned by voters this fall.
Virginia potentially gives Democrats a net gain of four seats from the mid-decade redistricting. Some or all of that could be made up by Republicans if Florida proceeds with a remap in the coming days.
In Virginia, the “yes” side benefited from a big edge in resources. It also benefited from the underlying partisan balance in the state and Democrats’ continuing opposition to Trump.
“For many supporters of the referendum, it was as though Trump was on the ballot,” said Mark J. Rozell, a George Mason University political scientist. “It’s hard to imagine a referendum like this could have passed otherwise.”
“This became a pretty straight-forward partisan election,” said Rich Meagher, a Randolph-Macon College political scientist. “And in a blue-ish state like Virginia, that favors Democrats. Republicans did a good job of turning out their voters. They did way better than most of us thought last year. But there simply aren’t enough of them in Virginia anymore.”
A cross-section of populous counties showed that support for “Yes” dropped several percentage points from Spanberger’s victory six months ago. The support for “Yes” was generally close to what it was for Harris, with support dropping the most in redder areas, where voters were energized against the measure.
Despite the loss, Republican strategist Brian Kerwin described the result as “nailbitingly close” and “miles better than anyone thought possible.”
After the election was called, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics released new ratings for four districts under the new map:
VA-1 (Northern Virginia to Richmond outskirts) moves from Likely Republican to Likely Democratic.
VA-2 (Hampton Roads) moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
VA-5 (western Richmond) moves from Safe Republican to Likely Democratic.
VA-6 (Roanoke/Charlottesville/Blacksburg/Harrisonburg) moves from Safe Republican to Leans Democratic.
Now attention turns to the Virginia Supreme Court, which put off considering court challenges until after the vote, Meagher said.
“It’s unlikely that they, or any court, would overturn an election, but it’s not impossible,” Meagher said. “Plus we may see other litigation from Republicans in the weeks to come.”
The result, assuming it holds up in court, “amplifies the partisan divide in Virginia politics and it sets a precedent that Republicans likely will use when they again have power in Virginia in the future,” Rozell said.
In the coming days, the Almanac of American Politics Substack will publish updated district descriptions for Virginia. They will be available to paid subscribers only.